Geopolitical risk may impact market sentiment_ manishi raychaudhuri _ business standard news market risk management policy

Heightened geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan evoked a knee-jerk reaction from the markets last week. Market risk premium 2012 Hong Kong-based Manishi Raychaudhuri, Asian equity strategist at BNP Paribas, tells Puneet Wadhwa that any correction in Indian equities is an opportunity for investors to put in money for the long term. What is the current market risk premium Edited excerpts:

We think the emerging markets (EMs) and Asia, in the medium term, will possibly do better than the developed markets (DMs). Market risk analyst There are a couple of reasons behind this. Beta market risk First, the DMs are far more expensive right now compared to the EMs. Risk analysis in stock market This is partly due to the sharp rally in the DMs since the past few years. Market risk premium


calculator Second, we are also seeing earnings recovery in EMs, including Asia.

However, in the near term, equity markets – both DMs and EMs – could see some correction after the recent sharp rally. What is the market risk premium today There can be some geopolitical risks that are getting concentrated over the fourth quarter, which may have a bearing on the sentiment.

For the Sensex, we have a target of 29,000 points. Market risk premium s&p 500 This implies that Indian markets could either correct from present levels, or remain around the current levels for some time. Market risk factors The latter scenario is that of a time correction, which the Indian markets are already going through, compared to other Asian markets.

Having said that, the risks investors face are not India-specific but are outside Indian shores. Stock market risk The most recent geopolitical tension has added to that. Global risks 2016 Potential slowdown in the European Union or the political change of guard in the US and its implications on the economic policies are questions investors increasingly ask now.

In the near term, say about one quarter, they might have to tighten their belt and brace for a correction. Ibbotson market risk premium 2015 However, over the medium-to-long term, we don’t really see much risk in the EM universe. Current market risk premium 2016 EMs are likely to outperform, and India continues to be a bright spot.

Fundamentally, India appears relatively a lot better than many other EMs. Market risk premium australia 2015 In India, we are seeing a gradual recovery in growth. Stock market risk and return At the same time, interest rates have been declining. Equity risk premium historical data We anticipate a steep decline in inflation in the near term, which leaves room for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut rates – if not this year, definitely in early next year. Historical market risk premium s&p 500 So a combination of increasing growth and declining rates is a rare combination in EMs. Market risk premium uk Economists refer to this as the ‘Goldilocks scenario’.

That apart, we think earnings estimates in India, as in the rest of Asia, are beginning to revive. Market risk calculation This economic and earnings recovery will be aided by a revival in the monsoon and the Seventh Pay Commission payout, which should support consumption in the semi-urban, tier-I and tier-II cities. Market risk management in banks Even the political and legislative decision-making situation has improved remarkably.

India trades at a premium to its EM peers. Market risk factors examples But, this premium has declined. Risk stock market India’s valuation premium peaked around March–April last year, when it was nearly two standard deviations above the long-term average. Us market risk premium 2016 It is now between half and one standard deviation. Market price risk In relation to Asia (ex-Japan), India does appear expensive but not in relation to its own history. Market risk premium south africa 2016 Any correction in Indian equities is an opportunity for investors to put in money for the long term.

There are four silos that we are concentrating on. Market risk management First is consumption. Market risk capital rule This implies both consumer discretionary and consumer staples but with a slightly higher tilt towards semi-urban consumption. Market risk var Second, we also think at some stage, industrial recovery will lead to alpha generation. Market risk premium us So, industrial companies, particularly those with low leverage, are the ones to focus on. Risk management system in stock market We also like cement. Market risk career path The third is private sector banks, especially those with a retail focus. Market risk career The fourth is the information technology services space. Equity risk premium australia 2015 As a consequence of the valuation correction, one can selectively pick stocks that will be significant alpha generators in the medium term.

In any sector, when we see incumbents generating return on equity (RoE) in triple digits, which is way higher than the cost of equity, the sector obviously becomes attractive for new investment. Subject to market risk Given this, entrepreneurs are bound to invest in a sector that is generating super-normal return. Market risk management ppt I think returns in the telecom sector, to some extent, may be under a question mark because of the high cost of spectrum and constant change in regulations. Market risk analyst salary singapore But consumer staples and discretionary sectors in India have always benefitted from high RoE and therefore, seen the entry of new players. Global solutions network As regards FMCG, we are not surprised that new players have attacked the traditional bastions that the multi-national companies (MNCs) and the Indian companies enjoy. Us market risk premium Having said this, we think for some of the incumbents the distribution reach is so wide and the product range is so vast, it will be difficult to make a serious dent in the RoE, at least in the near-to-medium term. Market liquidity risk management The sector is so large that there is always place for a new player.

As of now, we haven’t seen much fear given how equity and bond markets have behaved. Market risk jobs singapore Both these market segments seem unperturbed by the possibility of a rate hike. Market risk in banks In fact, the US Fed has been sending verbal signals about a rate hike for quite some time now, and I think both these market segments have taken it in their stride. Global solutions group Even if the US Fed does start a rate hike cycle, it is likely to be a very dovish and benign rate hike cycle. Managing the risks of organizational accidents It is now clear that the US Fed is trying to guide down the normalized interest rates in the United States (US). Market risk management in banks ppt While the normalized rate used to be around 3 – 3.5% earlier, it now appears that it will not be more than 2%. Global solutions So in such a scenario, we are not thinking about a steep rate hike. Definition of stock market It will be a very long drawn and calibrated rate hike cycle.

We think the emerging markets (EMs) and Asia, in the medium term, will possibly do better than the developed markets (DMs). Market risk reporting There are a couple of reasons behind this. Risk in stock market First, the DMs are far more expensive right now compared to the EMs. Var market risk This is partly due to the sharp rally in the DMs since the past few years. Market risk in banks ppt Second, we are also seeing earnings recovery in EMs, including Asia.

However, in the near term, equity markets – both DMs and EMs – could see some correction after the recent sharp rally. Hotel risk management jobs There can be some geopolitical risks that are getting concentrated over the fourth quarter, which may have a bearing on the sentiment.

For the Sensex, we have a target of 29,000 points. Market risk analyst jobs south africa This implies that Indian markets could either correct from present levels, or remain around the current levels for some time. Equity risk premium calculator The latter scenario is that of a time correction, which the Indian markets are already going through, compared to other Asian markets.

Having said that, the risks investors face are not India-specific but are outside Indian shores. Managing market risk The most recent geopolitical tension has added to that. Market risk ppt Potential slowdown in the European Union or the political change of guard in the US and its implications on the economic policies are questions investors increasingly ask now.

In the near term, say about one quarter, they might have to tighten their belt and brace for a correction. What is the market risk premium However, over the medium-to-long term, we don’t really see much risk in the EM universe. Risk of stock market EMs are likely to outperform, and India continues to be a bright spot.

Fundamentally, India appears relatively a lot better than many other EMs. Weather risk management jobs In India, we are seeing a gradual recovery in growth. Market risk policy At the same time, interest rates have been declining. Market risk management in banks pdf We anticipate a steep decline in inflation in the near term, which leaves room for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut rates – if not this year, definitely in early next year. Market risk analysis pdf So a combination of increasing growth and declining rates is a rare combination in EMs. Australia market risk premium 2015 Economists refer to this as the ‘Goldilocks scenario’.

That apart, we think earnings estimates in India, as in the rest of Asia, are beginning to revive. Market risk pdf This economic and earnings recovery will be aided by a revival in the monsoon and the Seventh Pay Commission payout, which should support consumption in the semi-urban, tier-I and tier-II cities. Market risk management policy Even the political and legislative decision-making situation has improved remarkably.

India trades at a premium to its EM peers. What is market risk premium But, this premium has declined. What does a market risk analyst do India’s valuation premium peaked around March–April last year, when it was nearly two standard deviations above the long-term average. Current market risk premium s&p 500 It is now between half and one standard deviation. Australian market risk premium In relation to Asia (ex-Japan), India does appear expensive but not in relation to its own history. Market risk premium Any correction in Indian equities is an opportunity for investors to put in money for the long term.

There are four silos that we are concentrating on. How to reduce market risk First is consumption. What is current market risk premium This implies both consumer discretionary and consumer staples but with a slightly higher tilt towards semi-urban consumption. Market risk management pdf Second, we also think at some stage, industrial recovery will lead to alpha generation. Market risk premium 2016 So, industrial companies, particularly those with low leverage, are the ones to focus on. Risk of stock market crash We also like cement. Market risk premium today The third is private sector banks, especially those with a retail focus. Market risk example The fourth is the information technology services space. Credit risk market risk As a consequence of the valuation correction, one can selectively pick stocks that will be significant alpha generators in the medium term.

In any sector, when we see incumbents generating return on equity (RoE) in triple digits, which is way higher than the cost of equity, the sector obviously becomes attractive for new investment. What is market risk Given this, entrepreneurs are bound to invest in a sector that is generating super-normal return. Emerging market risk I think returns in the telecom sector, to some extent, may be under a question mark because of the high cost of spectrum and constant change in regulations. Market risk premium nyu But consumer staples and discretionary sectors in India have always benefitted from high RoE and therefore, seen the entry of new players. Market risk premium 2012 As regards FMCG, we are not surprised that new players have attacked the traditional bastions that the multi-national companies (MNCs) and the Indian companies enjoy. What is the current market risk premium Having said this, we think for some of the incumbents the distribution reach is so wide and the product range is so vast, it will be difficult to make a serious dent in the RoE, at least in the near-to-medium term. Market risk analyst The sector is so large that there is always place for a new player.

As of now, we haven’t seen much fear given how equity and bond markets have behaved. Beta market risk Both these market segments seem unperturbed by the possibility of a rate hike. Risk analysis in stock market In fact, the US Fed has been sending verbal signals about a rate hike for quite some time now, and I think both these market segments have taken it in their stride. Market risk premium calculator Even if the US Fed does start a rate hike cycle, it is likely to be a very dovish and benign rate hike cycle. What is the market risk premium today It is now clear that the US Fed is trying to guide down the normalized interest rates in the United States (US). Market risk premium s&p 500 While the normalized rate used to be around 3 – 3.5% earlier, it now appears that it will not be more than 2%. Market risk factors So in such a scenario, we are not thinking about a steep rate hike. Stock market risk It will be a very long drawn and calibrated rate hike cycle.

Geopolitical risk may impact market sentiment: Manishi Raychaudhuri Interview with Asian equity strategist at BNP Paribas Interview with Asian equity strategist at BNP Paribas

Heightened geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan evoked a knee-jerk reaction from the markets last week. Global risks 2016 Hong Kong-based Manishi Raychaudhuri, Asian equity strategist at BNP Paribas, tells Puneet Wadhwa that any correction in Indian equities is an opportunity for investors to put in money for the long term. Ibbotson market risk premium 2015 Edited excerpts:

We think the emerging markets (EMs) and Asia, in the medium term, will possibly do better than the developed markets (DMs). Current market risk premium 2016 There are a couple of reasons behind this. Market risk premium australia 2015 First, the DMs are far more expensive right now compared to the EMs. Stock market risk and return This is partly due to the sharp rally in the DMs since the past few years. Equity risk premium historical data Second, we are also seeing earnings recovery in EMs, including Asia.

However, in the near term, equity markets – both DMs and EMs – could see some correction after the recent sharp rally. Historical market risk premium s&p 500 There can be some geopolitical risks that are getting concentrated over the fourth quarter, which may have a bearing on the sentiment.

For the Sensex, we have a target of 29,000 points. Market risk premium uk This implies that Indian markets could either correct from present levels, or remain around the current levels for some time. Market risk calculation The latter scenario is that of a time correction, which the Indian markets are already going through, compared to other Asian markets.

Having said that, the risks investors face are not India-specific but are outside Indian shores. Market risk management in banks The most recent geopolitical tension has added to that. Market risk factors examples Potential slowdown in the European Union or the political change of guard in the US and its implications on the economic policies are questions investors increasingly ask now.

In the near term, say about one quarter, they might have to tighten their belt and brace for a correction. Risk stock market However, over the medium-to-long term, we don’t really see much risk in the EM universe. Us market risk premium 2016 EMs are likely to outperform, and India continues to be a bright spot.

Fundamentally, India appears relatively a lot better than many other EMs. Market price risk In India, we are seeing a gradual recovery in growth. Market risk premium south africa 2016 At the same time, interest rates have been declining. Market risk management We anticipate a steep decline in inflation in the near term, which leaves room for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut rates – if not this year, definitely in early next year. Market risk capital rule So a combination of increasing growth and declining rates is a rare combination in EMs. Market risk var Economists refer to this as the ‘Goldilocks scenario’.

That apart, we think earnings estimates in India, as in the rest of Asia, are beginning to revive. Market risk premium us This economic and earnings recovery will be aided by a revival in the monsoon and the Seventh Pay Commission payout, which should support consumption in the semi-urban, tier-I and tier-II cities. Risk management system in stock market Even the political and legislative decision-making situation has improved remarkably.

India trades at a premium to its EM peers. Market risk career path But, this premium has declined. Market risk career India’s valuation premium peaked around March–April last year, when it was nearly two standard deviations above the long-term average. Equity risk premium australia 2015 It is now between half and one standard deviation. Subject to market risk In relation to Asia (ex-Japan), India does appear expensive but not in relation to its own history. Market risk management ppt Any correction in Indian equities is an opportunity for investors to put in money for the long term.

There are four silos that we are concentrating on. Market risk analyst salary singapore First is consumption. Global solutions network This implies both consumer discretionary and consumer staples but with a slightly higher tilt towards semi-urban consumption. Us market risk premium Second, we also think at some stage, industrial recovery will lead to alpha generation. Market liquidity risk management So, industrial companies, particularly those with low leverage, are the ones to focus on. Market risk jobs singapore We also like cement. Market risk in banks The third is private sector banks, especially those with a retail focus. Global solutions group The fourth is the information technology services space. Managing the risks of organizational accidents As a consequence of the valuation correction, one can selectively pick stocks that will be significant alpha generators in the medium term.

In any sector, when we see incumbents generating return on equity (RoE) in triple digits, which is way higher than the cost of equity, the sector obviously becomes attractive for new investment. Market risk management in banks ppt Given this, entrepreneurs are bound to invest in a sector that is generating super-normal return. Global solutions I think returns in the telecom sector, to some extent, may be under a question mark because of the high cost of spectrum and constant change in regulations. Definition of stock market But consumer staples and discretionary sectors in India have always benefitted from high RoE and therefore, seen the entry of new players. Market risk reporting As regards FMCG, we are not surprised that new players have attacked the traditional bastions that the multi-national companies (MNCs) and the Indian companies enjoy. Risk in stock market Having said this, we think for some of the incumbents the distribution reach is so wide and the product range is so vast, it will be difficult to make a serious dent in the RoE, at least in the near-to-medium term. Var market risk The sector is so large that there is always place for a new player.

As of now, we haven’t seen much fear given how equity and bond markets have behaved. Market risk in banks ppt Both these market segments seem unperturbed by the possibility of a rate hike. Hotel risk management jobs In fact, the US Fed has been sending verbal signals about a rate hike for quite some time now, and I think both these market segments have taken it in their stride. Market risk analyst jobs south africa Even if the US Fed does start a rate hike cycle, it is likely to be a very dovish and benign rate hike cycle. Equity risk premium calculator It is now clear that the US Fed is trying to guide down the normalized interest rates in the United States (US). Managing market risk While the normalized rate used to be around 3 – 3.5% earlier, it now appears that it will not be more than 2%. Market risk ppt So in such a scenario, we are not thinking about a steep rate hike. What is the market risk premium It will be a very long drawn and calibrated rate hike cycle.